Will the Supreme Court shut down Obamacare?

LISA HAGEN AND ZACH C. COHEN- National Journal 

As the Supreme Court mulls whether to strike down Obamacare insurance subsidies in 34 states, no state has more at stake than Florida.

In total, about 1.3 million people Florida residents—or about 7 percent of the state's total population—are getting Affordable Care Act subsidies to buy health insurance through the federal exchange, according to estimates compiled by the pro-ACA group Families USA. The group derived its estimates from Department of Health and Human Services data from early spring, pulling state- and zip-code-level numbers on consumers receiving premium tax credits and allotting the proper zip codes to their apportioned congressional districts.

While the effects of a subsidy shut-off will be felt most acutely by the people attempting to pay for health insurance, the effects will spill over into the political sphere. And there again, the largest shockwaves will likely be felt in Florida. On the statewide level, it will be a major point of contention as presidential candidates grapple in a state that typically goes a long way toward picking the next president.

And on the congressional level, members will have to face down large number of constituents asking how they have been put in a position in which they're legally required to buy health insurance that the federal government itself has determined they can't afford without subsidies they'll no longer get. That will be a particularly poignant complaint in South Florida, home to all of the nation's top nine congressional districts in terms of subsidy recipients on the federal exchange.

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